Market swings for composites during the day are REGULARLY 4%-5%. You can swing trade the S&P 500!!! A lot of the moves, especially since last week, have been on average to low volume.. ~ 85% of the average. I wonder if it is the investment houses who are moving the market like this, or is it the joe trader? Or has the joe trader cashed out his/her IRA and is trading with this money to gain back what was lost?
More later.
Not many updates recently. You'll see that most of the blogs focusing on day trading have stopped posting. Most likely it is because everyone is losing money and that's keeping us pretty quiet.
Working on "the model" has been very profitable for me. That's because I'm still spending more time on the code "in the harbor" than out in the choppy market waters fishing for good trades. I can be thankful that I haven't lost money yet, although I can't say that I've made any money either. Yet, with a market like this, anyone fully in cash can say they beat the market 50% this year... Crazy.
More later,
The Man.
So the market is reaching a fever pitch, and investors are starting to pull out in major ways. Here's where the leverage and the low cash reserves of the mutual funds will thoroughly decimate the stock market. Investors pull out of the mutual funds. Mutual funds, without sufficient cash reserves, will have to pull out as well, against their professional opinion. Funny how we invest in mutual funds and take the 1% to 3% hit in fees for precisely this advice. Unfortunately, this advice cannot be taken when everyone tries to pull out. The good news out of this is that the mutual fund companies will have a lot of cash on reserves again once the market turns up. This will give them more control over their investments, and ultimately a better chance to beat it.
Markets down 450 pts. Markets up 250 pts. Markets down 450 pts. And remember, computer trading stops after 200 pts. People tried very hard to get down to this value. If computers ran the market (like in '87), the market would have already crashed 4 to 5 times already.
This is probably the beginning of "The Big One," which was prophesied by many a bear market proponent since 2000.
On the local side, The Algorithm is serving it's purpose:
Giving me lots to do and keeping me from trading all of this time! Cash is King right now, and the time to invest is sooner than we think.
Speaking of The Algorithm, lots of improvements have occured. The most important improvement is the development of an automated stock scanner that looks for stocks that fit the model well. Already a few stocks have been identified that work better than the ones that the model was developed on, and it is hoped that the datamining operation will yield great fruit. Now we must focus on whether or not macro-scale events (like a stock market collapse) will affect the predictability of the stocks using this model. Most likely the answer is as sure as a microsoft jiggle.
More later...
No updates from me or The Machine since June! Part of the problem was my ISP's mail server blocked The Machine's postings, and the other problem was I have been working for two months overhauling The Machine's code. The first half was beneficial, as I added a robust expert-based neural net decision logic.
The other half was not so useful. Tried to incorporate volatility back into the code, but it onlyserved to weaken the overall solution across all of my vectors. The only good thing was I was so engrossed in this code that I didn't waste my time or money trading. Which could be argued as being the whole point of this exercise.
The best I can do is to reduce the loss on a stock by 50% (buy and hold is ~ 60% loss, and The Machine is ~30% loss over the course of a year), Of course, if you know the stock is going to plumet, then just "sell in May of 2007 and stay away."
Hindsight is 20/20, unless you forget to put on your spectacles in the morning.
More later.
No updates from me or The Machine since June! Part of the problem was my ISP's mail server blocked The Machine's postings, and the other problem was I have been working for two months overhauling The Machine's code. The first half was beneficial, as I added a robust expert-based neural net decision logic.
The other half was not so useful. Tried to incorporate volatility back into the code, but it onlyserved to weaken the overall solution across all of my vectors. The only good thing was I was so engrossed in this code that I didn't waste my time or money trading. Which could be argued as being the whole point of this exercise.
The best I can do is to reduce the loss on a stock by 50% (buy and hold is ~ 60% loss, and The Machine is ~30% loss over the course of a year), Of course, if you know the stock is going to plumet, then just "sell in May of 2007 and stay away."
Hindsight is 20/20, unless you forget to put on your spectacles in the morning.
More later.
Just read my last post. What a bunch of big words stung together just to say: "The model is broken, and I'm almost finished fixing it."
Well, I do feel it is almost done. I now no longer need very much computing power anymore. With psyco optimizations, it takes only about 30 megs of memory to run, and I've downgraded The Machine to an old PII.
To do, the regular postings is down due to a problem with the smtp server.
More later.
Still working on the code. It looks like there are still problems with returning inconsistent answers. Without consistent answers, there is no hope to optimize the algorithm for the best answer.
Anyway, I've narrowed it down to the issue of trying to use stochastic, analog problem solving method on a problem with a very digital output (buy, sell, wait).
In order to solve this problem, I have to rig the code by judiciously invoking some rounding and also by setting up a predetermined random seed for the algorithm. Otherwise, the computed solution will always be just slightly different, which it turns out is enough to give inconsistent answers, and impair the optimization runs, which require definite answers.
Alas.. The problem of using genetic algorithms. It gives "pretty good answers mos of the time", but not absoute answers all of the time!
More later.
More later.
Nevertheless, the economy is sputtering in and out of recession, and the major crash has not happened yet. I guess about the only hope left for the bears is a major catastrophic accident.
Also, I'm finishing up my algorithm improvements. Will be releasing them to the blog as time permits.
More later
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-23 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-22 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-21 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-18 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 24.7925
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-17 Time: 04:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 24.2775
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-16 Time: 04:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 22.6875
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-15 Time: 04:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-14 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-11 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-10 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-09 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-08 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-07 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 23.9475
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-04 Time: 04:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 23.5225
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-03 Time: 04:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 23.3875
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-02 Time: 04:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-04-01 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-31 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-28 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-27 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-26 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-25 Time: 04:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 21.83
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-24 Time: 04:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 21.83
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-21 Time: 04:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 22.2075
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-20 Time: 04:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 22.0275
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-19 Time: 04:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 20.905
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-18 Time: 04:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-17 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 21.7075
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-14 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-13 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-12 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-11 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-10 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-07 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-04 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-03-03 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 26.725
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-29 Time: 03:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-28 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-27 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-26 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-25 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 26.7075
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-22 Time: 03:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
After coming back we start to smell the smog and pollution all the more acrid to our lungs, and realize how far from our ideal life we've strayed.
Going on vacation puts regular life in perspective, which I feel is the most important part.
More later
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-21 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 26.39
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-20 Time: 03:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 25.815
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-19 Time: 03:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 25.815
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-18 Time: 03:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 25.955
Decision:SELL
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-15 Time: 03:00
SAY: SELL
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-14 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-13 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-12 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-11 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 23.73
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-08 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 24.175
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-07 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-06 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
I've recently learned that the stimulus package introduces new legislation that TEMPORARILY raises the jumbo loan cap from $417,000 to up to $730,000. Much as I would like anyone to be able to buy a home, by temporarily opening up the market to a 1-2% rate drop for new home buyers and for refinances, we are effectively inflating the price of homes around the country - temporarily. But once the window closes and all of the refinances are done, prices will then trend lower again, meaning that even more Americans will be locked into loans they can't afford in houses that they can't get out of. This will spur the government to make the jumbo loan cap permanent, which will mean that ultimately the houses from 0 to $730,000 becomes the new norm, which will help to raise the price of the McMansion to well over 1 to 2 million dollars. This will further widen the gap between the have and have nots, and leave the noble, hard working middle class a dying breed. Pop goes the bubble.
More later.
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-05 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-04 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 24.1775
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-02-01 Time: 09:43
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
So the Fed dropped interest rates, and after a brief spike in the afternoon, it was business as usual for Wall Street. I also overheard some quant traders talking on the train earrlier today, and it's good to know that they too have no idea how to model the market.
More later.
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-31 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-30 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-29 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Much as I do not like the prospect of a recession, softening the blow of a contraction of money flow will have a profound effect on our future. Just as the ARMs of yesteryear are affecting today's bottom lines, by lowering the interest rates, we are mortgaging our future in order for us to enjoy our cheap TVs and houses. Don't take the bait.
More later.
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-28 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-25 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-24 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 22.0875
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-23 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Well, The Machine isn't doing so well with the predictions these days. SAY has continually said "BUY BUY BUY" and CY has said to WAIT as both stock values drop. I have to say that CY did enjoy a little bit of time of being "In the know" before the drop. But at 50% correct AT BEST, it looks like algorithmic trading can't deal with real market futures, or at worst, it's a random, zero sum game. This is because it is a backward looking algorithm, which does best when there is no new information added to the system. The only hope for algo trading is that the market is not random, but rather chaotic - i.e. moves in an unpredictable pattern. The hope is that we can find that pattern. I hope that such a day will come, but my gut feeling is that it's not achievable. But we'll keep trying!
The algo will stay on for now, though I don't think it's a good idea to follow it. The drops in the global markets have coincided with Jan options expiring. The Man says to get excited for new opportunities ahead: With the drop in equities and real estate, and assuming a 3 year recession, now's the time to start saving (not investing) for that big purchase, or thinking about the next business opportunity. Keep your powder dry, and cut the fat out of your budget. Two and a half years from now, you'll be in a good position in savings to catch the upswing in the market again.
More later.
Asian stocks are taking a beating this week, and oil prices are dropping in anticipation of a U.S. recession. Here's an interesting thought - the Fed's new strategy to fight inflation is by reducing interest rates to reecord lows.
Naturally, prices are high when demand exceeds supply. Inflation is ultimately tied to energy supplies, and in this case, the price of fossil fuels - the cheapest, most simple form of energy. Much of the excess demand has been sopped up by major developing countries like China and India.
So how can the Fed reduce demand? Put these developing nations into a tailspin long enough for them to begin to tax their fledging financial system and induce a long term global recession - a recession that will lead to the next cycle of growth by the country with the strongest capital system: The U.S..
More later.
SAY Price: 22.12
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-21 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 21.52
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-18 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 21.9325
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-17 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
The News: INTC dropped nearly 11% in premarket trading. Indymac lays off 25% of their staff.
Stock prices drop because people believe that a bad economy means a contraction in the movement of money which causes stock prices to drop, and so they get out of the stock market, causing the price to drop and a contraction in the movement of money. By believing that things are going to be bad, the populace makes it worse by simultaneously eroding their personal net worth and reducing the amount of capital available in the economy to spur future growth. Where's the sense in that?
If anything, this is the time to wait and start thinking about buying good companies with a sound business plans. Prices are low, and outlooks are getting grim. A company that's strapped for cash cannot raise any cash if their stock price is flagging. This will flush out the weak hands that did well in a credit-rich environment where efficiency and fundamentals were not as important how good a company was at grabbing as much of the inflation-loosed cash as possible.
More later.
SAY Price: 23.1225
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-16 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 23.7725
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-15 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 23.9875
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-14 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 23.9875
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-12 Time: 21:11
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 24.89
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-09 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
SAY Price: 24.3075
Decision:BUY
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-08 Time: 03:00
SAY: BUY
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
There are rumors that the Fed are considering once again lowering interest rates in order to shore up the economy. These rumors are probably knee-jerk reactions by the market hoping that by hoping it will come true.
This will mean fresh highs in Oil and gold as the U.S. Dollar declines in value. This is exactly what happens when the Fed devalues the U.S. Dollar. If a company decides to issue more stock, they are able to raise more money by selling their diluted shares near or at the value of the pre-diluted share price, because the investors are not usually aware of the dilution until the next quaterly report.
Enter the Fed, who has done this before. Other nations like China and Japan have taken the brunt of the dilution by buying U.S. Bonds. This is not going to happen again, as each respective country has already indicated they are "stuffed to the gills" with U.S. Bonds.
This is not going to work again. Maybe wait 20 years when everyone is gullible again.
Also, given that 8% of the U.S. Population lives in CA, and given that most of CA's houses are double or triple that of the nation, you can expect that roughly a third of the mortgages in dollar value were made in CA. Given that the jumbo loan rate is still at 8% or higher for prime customers due to the subprime meltdown, don't expect that the primary domestic stimulus will restart with any drop in Interest Rates. Recession is here to stay.
More later
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-07 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
The second father and son essay entitled "Asset Allocation" has been published.!!! It can be found at http://www.wcoretech.com/ under the heading Father and Son.
One of the highlights is the publication of a cash flow calculator that helps to show you how your current spending choices affect your future financial situation 5 years down the line. That calculator can be found in the "Resources" section of the site.
More later. Happy New Year!
If you think about it, a down stock market is a good thing. A recession is also good once in a while. As prices fall, the amount of liquidity and money flow into companies dries up. This forces companies to "cut the fat" in their operations, and provides the motivation for improved efficiency both in the marketplace as a whole and within an individual organization. Without downside, the forest of companies will grow too inefficient, and there will be a lot of dead wood around. With this inefficient environment, all that's needed is a small spark, and the entire forest could burn down. Better to have smaller fires that clear the brush and provide the nutrients necessary for future growth than to have one big dead forest ready to make a bunch of ash.
How about yourself? Maybe this writer's strike-imposed fast from media has been good for all of us? It gives us a chance to cut the fat and prepare for when opportunity is more abundant!
More later.
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-04 Time: 03:00
SAY: WAIT
CY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
The U.S. Economy is still the model economy of the 21st century. Given the sheer size and power of this engine, few things can really make a large difference in changing group behavior, and yet, you have to hand it to the federal government for really navigating the waters with their only real rudder in the economic ocean - the control of money flow.
I think once the economic historians get their hands on this era of time, they will lump it into problem eras of times past. But if you think about it, the U.S. Consumer and the companies behind it has enabled the growth and increase of standard of living for a great multitude of people around the world.
We have endured two consecutive economic shocks - the tech "bubble" and 911 -where either event in earlier times would have decimated the U.S. Economy. This does not mean decimated U.S. STOCKS... No. It would have meant you and I could not work and put food on the table. I for one am very happy that I lost money in the stock market over the very real possibility of not being able to work.
more later.
Summary Version 8.3
Date: 2008-01-03 Time: 03:00
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This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Perhaps the strongest indicator of the state of the economy are what happens on main street - or in this case, Orange Grove in Pasadena on Jan 1st. I'm talking about the Rose Parade. This year's rose parade seemed a little shorter this year than the last (despite the three broken down floats that had to be towed home), and there were very few floats with pyrotechnics included (Honda's float was probably the most memorable as it changed from a car into a space ship... Possible direction of the motor company?). We also saw the advent of outsourced floats (Such as the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games float), with a good measure of controversy (Anti-War Protestors, Anti China Protestors, Presidential Candidate Canvassing, etc.), which may indicate overall dissatisfaction with our current state of affairs. Perhaps the strongest indicator for me was the "3 military jets" that flew over the parade route. These jets were certainly spectacular, but they were a far cry from the STEALTH fighter and bomber formations that has flown over the parade route in years past. This may be an indication of the overall state of the economy. What do you think?
More later.
Summary Version 8.2
Date: 2008-01-02 Time: 03:00
CY: WAIT
SAY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
Summary Version 8.2
Date: 2008-01-01 Time: 03:00
CY: WAIT
SAY: WAIT
This information does not constitute
financial advice of any kind.
Have a nice day!
